AI regulation
I prepared two “weekly rants” on AI which will come out in a few weeks.
Economics
The Grumpy Economist.
News, views, and commentary from a free market point of view.
Recent essays
30 of 45Pay Your Debts: Alexander Hamilton
This is an essay I wrote for Hoover’s Freedom Frequency substack, in their series on the founders.
Trade Basics
Follow the money past the initial recipient.
Warsh's Challenges, Financial Regulation
I wrote two opeds on the future of the Fed for the Washington Post. Full text of the first one, focusing on monetary policy, in my previous post here. The second focusing on financial regulation is joint with Amit Seru.
Sluggish expectations
As part of a big revision of “Inflation”, a short book resulting from last year’s Brunner lecture, I wrote the following short section.
Warsh's Challenges: Monetary Policy (full version)
This is an OpEd at the Washington Post. Their title: “How to protect the economy from the ghosts of 1979.” (Really 1951!) I posted an excerpt a month ago. Here is the full version.
On a report to the G7
The G7 (Group of 7) economic confab is on in the lovely Evian-Les-Bains, France.
Wealth tax equilibrium accounting
The recent Piketty-Saez-Stiglitz revival of wealth taxes, ostensibly to improve the lot of the poor, makes many mistakes.
Shock Accounting.
The lab-leak shock really caused inflation
Supply Shocks and Nominal Anchors
Updating “Inflation,” I took “supply” and “demand” shocks more seriously, in a FTPL framework.
Warsh's Challenges: Financial Regulation
This is an oped at the Washington Post, the second in a pair on Warsh’s challenges.
1979 Again
As the new CPI data came out hot, I can’t resist updating the comparison to the 1970s.
Inequality at WSJ
Andrew Blackman at Wall Street Journal asked several economists for ideas on “what to do about inequality?” As you can imagine, I argued with the question.
Hoover Monetary Policy Conference 2026 Overview Essay
This is an overview essay.
Hoover Monetary Policy Conference 2026
The slides and videos from the May 8 2026 Hoover Monetary Policy Conference are up.
Tech Stock Singularity
The huge SpaceX IPO has spawned the following speculation: Index funds are forced to buy shares of new large companies, in proportion to their market capitalization.
Warsh's Challenges: Monetary Policy
This is an OpEd at the Washington Post, their title “How to protect the economy from the ghosts of 1979.”
Two books
The Hoover Press just released two books that I co-edited, that readers may find interesting
Has the Time Come for Dollarization in the Americas?
Last week I did a very interesting (to me at least) panel at CATO on dollarization in Latin America, focusing on Argentina.
1979 update
From Jesper Rangvid Disclaimer, this is thought provoking fun, not serious analysis.
Book Sale
It’s a great moment to buy usually overpriced books at Princeton:
The Iran War Doesn’t Have to Be a Rerun of ‘That ’70s Show’
Rising energy prices turn into recessions only if bad government policies compound their effects
Inside the Fed's Balance Sheet
A video and podcast interview with Darrell Duffie, based on his excellent recent article. Click here to watch/listen via Hoover’s Freedom Frequency series.
War and Interest Rates
You knew about oil prices, discussed in a previous post. Now attention is turning to the sharp rise of long-term interest rates. From Ian Smith, Sam Fleming, and Olaf Storbeck in the Financial Times:
IEA Interview on economic policy
I did this interview with Tom Clougherty while visiting the Institute of Economic Affairs in London last September.
Video
I’ve been traveling a bit lately and catching up on some writing deadlines, hence less posting than usual.
Trump and monetary policy: Full Oped
This is a WSJ oped that I can now publish in its entirety.
Brazilian Inflation and Disinflation
Last week I read a nice capsule history of Brazilian inflation, by Pedro Carvalho.
Price Control Apologia
My colleague and friend Neale Mahoney writes in favor of price and rent controls in the Sunday New York Times, with Bharat Ramamurti.
Causation Does not Imply Variation
Tyler Muir suggested this lovely catchphrase, which should stand next to “Correlation does not imply causation” in our menagerie of econometric sayings.