Central bankers draw on their experiences
It won’t surprise anyone when I say that central bankers, just like the rest of us, rely to some extent on their lifetime experiences when they do their job.
Finance
Klement on Investing.
Thoughts on financial markets by Joachim Klement.
Recent essays
30 of 88More than a military alliance
What happens when a country (e.g.
Can US democracy survive its debt tipping point?
My latest opinion piece for Reuters is out this morning.
The growth effects of natural disasters
I don’t have to tell anyone living in Europe in the summer of 2026 that extreme weather events are becoming more frequent.
The shape of AI slop
By now, most people who read these posts will be painfully familiar with the signs of AI-generated text.
Build. More. Houses.
Everywhere you go in Europe and the UK, people complain about the lack of affordable housing.
The price momentum of lottery tickets
As long-time readers know, I like to analyse momentum effects and find ways to improve momentum strategies since they tend to be prone to momentum crashes.
Southeast Asia as the new investment hub
When the US government imposed tariffs on pretty much every trading partner, it triggered a chain reaction that continues to ripple through the world.
Organic farming isn’t that much of a boon
I happen to have some in-laws in Germany who are biodynamic farmers.
It’s not me, it’s you
Every four years, I publish my World Cup forecasts as an exercise in showing that economists think they can meddle in everything, even though they have no clue and should better leave the topic alone.
The costs and benefits of working for a large asset manager
Fund managers always wonder if they should go it alone and set up their own boutique firm or be part of a larger asset management firm with its considerable marketing and distribution power.
Efficiency or resilience? Democracies can only pick one
Back from my holidays, I penned a little bit of a philosophical opinion piece for Reuters.
We are all ‘in hock to the bond market’
I honestly get really aggravated when I hear politicians on the left of the political spectrum argue that we should stop paying attention to bond markets and rather spend more to help people.
Defence spending and the stability of a country
Defence spending is rising across Europe, and I guess that the War in Iran will lead to more defence spending in that region as well.
Story-telling animals
Suppose you are invested in the stock of company A.
The performance decay of LLM trading strategies
A couple of months ago, I wrote about an experiment where researchers from the San Francisco Fed asked ChatGPT to forecast inflation.
Higher deficits cause inflation
It is a long-established fear among bond investors and economists that a country that runs higher budget deficits will eventually suffer from higher inflation in order to indirectly ‘default’ on its debt.
Knowledge and experience are what count
Which equity analysts are voted star analysts in the annual beauty parade provided by a variety of companies?
Let the climate wars begin
Climate change increases the risk of floods, droughts and other natural catastrophes that cause extreme stress, particularly in poor societies.
It’s not the fault of right-wing news
I am definitely not breaking new ground when I say that the US public is polarised.
Here is one reason why better managed firms succeed
A couple of months ago, management consulting firm McKinsey published a report where they took the management of UK businesses to task.
If this is true, the hyperscalers are toast
In my regular research (behind a paywall), I have been saying for a while that I think the future of AI is not large language models (LLM), but small language models (SLM) run on local desktop computers or even mobile phones.
When it comes to inflation, ‘in’ is better than ‘out’
One of the advantages that countries outside the Eurozone have is that they can control their monetary policy.
The UK’s experience with the National Living Wage
In the first half of 2016, the UK economy experienced a major shock.
Data-centre reality check could slam brakes on AI earnings boom
My latest opinion piece for Reuters is out today.
Life in Europe is just better
Today is my last post before my usual extended summer break.
What’s so special about a 2% inflation target?
It’s Fed Day again, and the Fed has to deal with inflation rates that remain stubbornly above its 2% target.
Keep your politics out of your investments
I keep telling everyone that you should keep your politics out of your investment portfolio.
How fast money is warping market logic
Another opinion piece from me at Reuters ROI.
Graduating in the age of AI
My wife’s niece (my niece-in-law?) graduated from college in the US this year.