Larry Swedroe on investing, markets, and economic evidence.
For decades, the Cyclically Adjusted Price-Earnings (CAPE) ratio—pioneered by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller—has been the gold standard for evaluating equity market valuations.
Private markets have transformed from a niche corner of institutional finance into a core portfolio allocation.
A June 16, 2026 article from AQR tackled a question that comes up more often than you’d think among sophisticated investors: if you hold a long position in your personal brokerage account and simultaneously short the identical position through a partnership yo…
The dangers associated with high public debt are well-documented in economic literature.
Two of the longest-running puzzles in accounting and asset pricing research are the accrual anomaly and the post-earnings-announcement drift, or PEAD.
A Substack subscriber asked that I write up Montier’s Seven Sins of Fund Management.
A Substack subscriber asked that I write up this paper.
Why Private Equity’s Favorite Performance Metric Doesn’t Hold Up
Every night, a financial news pipeline quietly ingests nearly thousands of news articles tagged across the nine industry sectors and S&P 500.
A June 2026 research paper from CrossVol Research — “Convergent Faults: A Quantitative Forensic of Private Credit’s Synchronized Systemic Risk” — makes a case that deserves attention from anyone with exposure to private credit, whether as an investor, an advis…
Most investors encounter two kinds of information about a stock: what insiders are doing with their own money, and what the financial press is saying.
New research finds that extreme downside shocks to future consumption drive the equity risk premium. Those who cannot tolerate the discomfort are the ones who pay for it.
A standalone short book is structurally disadvantaged.
Xuelin Li, Sangmin Oh, and Giacomo Ricciardi, authors of the June 2026 study “Rating Without Market Discipline” — deliver an empirical indictment of private credit ratings in the insurance sector.
My May 29, 2026 Substack column, “What Do We Actually Know About Private Fund Performance?
A new academic study finds that investor intervention often reduces the quality of AI-generated portfolio recommendations.
Over the past century, the U.S.
The major headline news is that even before the cessation of fighting with Iran, the U.S.
My friend Kai Wu, host of “The Intangible Economy” podcast and manager of Sparkline Capital’s Intangible Value ETFs ITAN and DTAN, interviewed financial historian Edward Chancellor, who has spent a career studying speculative manias.
The Data Says Less Than the Headlines Suggest
Private credit has moved from niche to mainstream, and with that growth has come a less glamorous but increasingly important question: what happens when a fund promises investors periodic liquidity while holding assets that are inherently hard to sell?
What Buffett gets right—and what investors miss
CAPE and price/dividend look broken, but new research shows they’ve been misread. Here are 5 takeaways for investors.
It’s easy to say prices went down, so it must have been a bubble, after the fact.
Are private credit valuations based on quarterly appraisals creating a structural lag between market conditions and reported performance?
Charles Ellis’s classic work, Winning the Loser’s Game—first published as a book in 1985, building on his landmark 1975 Financial Analysts Journal article— highlighted a sobering reality for investors: only about 20% of actively managed funds—those attempting…
New academic research reveals that private companies time their public listings to exploit temporary mispricings in comparable public stocks.
Legal sports betting in the U.S.
Since the Iran ceasefire, equity markets have surged, with most attention focused on semiconductors and AI names.
Academics have identified hundreds of factors that supposedly explain stock returns.