Chinese Exports Hid Manufacturing's Deglobalisation.
Manufacturing slowbalisation was actually delocalisation (mostly to China).
EconomicsFinance
Richard Baldwin Substack.
Richard Baldwin on globalisation, trade, and the future of the world economy.
Recent essays
23 of 23Silicon Valley Does the Work; Ireland Books the Exports; But Who Pays the Tax?
How Tax Law Handed Ireland the World Cup of Digital-Services Exports.
How America Out-Deindustrialised Europe
The EU offshored to itself, ran a manufacturing trade surplus, and then there was Ireland.
China’s Phantom Deindustrialisation
Standard measures say China is deindustrialising along with the G7. But that’s not real.
Did the Rest of the G7 Deindustrialise the American Way?
No. While America lost its appetite for manufactures, the others shifted value added shares offshore.
What Actually Shrank American Manufacturing?
Less wanted, more imported, more offshored. The first did most of the damage; the third never happened.
Did US Underproduction Cause China’s Overproduction?
“Chinese overproduction caused America’s trade deficit” and “US underproduction caused China’s surplus” are the same sentence read in opposite directions.
2025 Trade: Geopolitical Realignment or Rerouting?
China rerouting its US-bound exports is being dressed up as geopolitical fragmentation.
Is Trump Obsessed with the Wrong Exports?
Goods exports make the politics; service exports make the jobs.
The WTO Is Not in Crisis. It Has Arthritis.
The problems are not acute but treating them as such might make things worse.
Did Trumpian Tariffs Fragment America or the World Trade System?
Why the rest of the world defended rules-based trade while the US turned inward.
Why Didn’t Other Countries Copy Trump’s Tariffs?
By Richard Baldwin, Professor at IMD Business School, 8 May 2026.
World War Trade and the Strait of Hormuz
The weaponisation of trade spreads to shipping chokepoints.
When Trump Met Escalation Dominance:
The US-China Trade War Lessons for Iran
Trump’s Conduct of Trade War: What Lessons for His Conduct of Real War?
Factful Friday 17 April 2026
From Trade Architect to Trade Arsonist: America’s Journey
How John F. Kennedy’s American exceptionalism gave way to Trump’s grievance politics
The Craziest Tariff Day in History: 9 April 2025
Grievance-fuelled tariffs had collided with financial market reality, and reality won.
From World War Trade to Domino Regionalism: The Emergent Global Trading Order
By Richard Baldwin 2 April 2026.
How Did the 75-percenters Save the System?
America and China fought; the others showed restraint, boosted resilience, and built bridges among themselves.
Why Didn’t Trumpian Tariffs Wreck the World Trade System?
Why didn’t Donald Trump’s tariffs melt down the world trade system? This Factful Friday, based on snippets from my forthcoming eBook, World War Trade, argues that Trumpian tariffs were more about optics than outcomes. When the happy headlines generated by bold…
Is the US becoming a more closed economy?
Spoiler: Yes.
Why Can’t Tariffs Help the American Middle Class?
Four facts and a conclusion.
Will “Drill Baby, Drill” Deindustrialise America?
Does US manufacturing have the Dutch Disease?