What to Make of the Latest Fall in Oil Prices
Yesterday’s sharp fall underscores that a very large risk premium is priced into Brent
EconomicsFinance
Robin J Brooks.
Robin Brooks on FX, macro, and the plumbing of global capital flows — Brookings senior fellow, former chief economist at IIF.
Recent essays
30 of 182How Will Markets Trade the Midterm Elections?
They won’t - there’s way too much event risk around the restart of a “hot” war with Iran
How Much Will Gold Fall in a Hot War?
A recording from Robin J Brooks's live video
How Much Will Gold Fall in a Hot War?
A ten percent jump in oil prices - if it happens - maps into a four percent drop in gold
Markets on the Eve of War
A recording from Robin J Brooks's live video
Markets on the Eve of War
Markets have this week moved to fully price in a return to a “hot” war with Iran
Is Kevin Warsh a Dove or a Hawk?
If you were to consult Yoda from Star Wars on this, he’d say: “wrong question that is.”
How to Think About Marine Le Pen
Le Pen will be like Meloni - a toothless administrator constrained by too much debt
Why is the Dollar so Strong?
The Dollar isn’t strong because of the Fed or France - it’s strong because of oil
How Will Markets Trade the Fed?
It’s hard to sound hawkish in the press conference when you haven’t actually hiked
The Story About How Fed QE Went Bad
How is US fiscal policy ever going to get fixed if the Fed caps yields in bad shocks?
How the ECB Will Help France
A recording from Robin J Brooks's live video
How the ECB Will Help France
If the sell-off in French debt worsens, the ECB will obviously intervene
Is China driving up oil prices?
A recording from Robin J Brooks's live video
What’s Priced into Brent at $117?
A big risk premium has gotten priced in anticipation of a return to a “hot” war
Is China Driving Up Oil Prices?
China’s oil imports have risen in line with Persian Gulf supply - it’s NOT panic buying
What a Global Debt Crisis Looks Like
As French government bond yields spike, we’re seeing the telltale signs of global crisis
France Catches on Fire
What the debt sell-off in France is about and what it’s not about
What Makes the Fed Hike Next Week?
There’s no realistic scenario where the Fed hikes its policy rate on October 28
Why is the French Debt Sell-Off so Bad?
France got huge inflows into its debt this summer, so there’s a big positioning overhang
Debunking the Latest Oil Price Myths
This post goes through some of the misinformation of recent weeks and debunks it
French Yields Are Worse Than You Think
We’re conditioned to look at 10-year yield, but 20- and 30-year yields look way worse
European Hypocrisy on Russia
German and Italian exporters are falling over themselves transshipping stuff to Russia
Why France is Systemic
There’s a widespread view that France is too small to matter, but that’s wrong
The Dark Side of China’s Export Boom
China’s direct exports to Russia are surging, as are its transshipments via Central Asia
The New Era of Chinese Mercantilism
A recording from Robin J Brooks's live video
Financial Stability Risk as AI Debt Sinks
Financial stress is rising, but we’re still at moderate levels compared to earlier in 2026
How big is the AI fear factor in markets?
A recording from Robin J Brooks's live video
How the US Can Get Oil Prices Down
The US has been holding its fire against IRGC attacks on ships, but that’s a mistake
A New Era of Chinese Mercantilism
Nothing good will come from the unprecedented boom in China’s exports