Update on oil prices, the blockade and the Canadian Dollar
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EconomicsFinance
Robin J Brooks.
Robin Brooks on FX, macro, and the plumbing of global capital flows — Brookings senior fellow, former chief economist at IIF.
Recent essays
30 of 46Why is the Canadian Dollar so Weak?
The rise in global oil prices should have given the Canadian Dollar a big lift, but it didn't
Shadow government bond yields in the G10
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Foreign Ownership of Government Debt
You can use your central bank to cap yields, but you can't make foreigners buy your debt
War in a World awash with Debt
When you're running out of fiscal space, the last thing you need is war
Why Are Oil Prices Rising so Slowly?
After $200 oil didn't happen a few months ago, markets are now "once bitten, twice shy"
Shadow Government Bond Yields in the G10
Shadow yields for high-debt countries in the G10 are far above the level of actual yields
Japan's Interest Rate Disaster
Without constant BoJ buying, Japanese long-term yields would be in the double digits
Winners and Losers in the Oil Shock
The Colombian Peso and the S&P 500 have been the big winners in this shock
How Greece continually undermines Russia sanctions
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Greek Sabotage of EU Sanctions on Russia
Greece has systematically undermined every EU effort to tighten maritime sanctions
Debunking Misinformation from the Oil Bulls
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Debunking Misinformation from the Oil Bulls
The $200 oil crowd has gone very quiet, but it's still spreading lots of misinformation
The SCOTUS Tariff Windfall for China
China's export prices have jumped massively since SCOTUS ruled IEEPA tariffs illegal
China is Winning
China's export sector has emerged massively strengthened from the US tariff stand-off
What Slowing Inflation Means for the Dollar
The only reason the Dollar didn't go into freefall yesterday is because we're back at war
Q&A on Blockade 2.0
Iran gained valuable breathing space in recent weeks, which the US now has to negate
How Much Will Oil Prices Spike in a Hot War?
If we go back to a "hot" war, the absolute peak for the Brent oil price will be around $125
Can Repatriation Flows Save the Japanese Yen?
GPIF repatriation flows are similar to FX intervention and will be just as ineffective
Should the Fed hike interest rates?
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Should the Fed Hike?
Today's post runs through key metrics on whether the Fed should hike - it should not!
Welcome to the Quagmire
Our own fear that oil prices could spike is the single biggest obstacle to a peace deal
How to Reinstate the US Blockade of Iran
There's ways to make the US blockade even more painful for Iran this time around
How the US Became a Massive Oil Exporter
The US in recent months has become a massive oil exporter and that's not about the SPR
Europe's Ministry of Truth
The ECB is busy rewriting history, just like Orwell's Ministry of Truth in "1984"
Iran Didn't Win the War
The regime gets painted as having the upper hand, but in truth it desperately needs peace
Markets After the Oil Shock
Oil prices have fallen back to pre-war levels, but everything else is different
Can the Fed shrink its balance sheet?
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Can the Fed shrink its balance sheet?
There's no way to shrink the balance sheet without longer-term Treasury yields going up
The Start of the Dollar Correction
The Dollar is overdue for a fall - yesterday's weak payrolls is the start of such a drop