Policy, markets, and the science of choices.
Michael Kremer picked as World Bank chief economist (Bloomberg). Here are many many previous MR posts on Kremer, of course Alex also worked with him on Operation Warp Speed. The post Very good news appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.
It’s amazing how a theory can take over a brain. Consider the idea that people believe what serves their interests. As heuristics go, it’s a good one. I use it all the time. Yet when Dario Amodei says AI is dangerous, perhaps even an extinction risk, some peop…
Normal service resumes Friday
Here’s three questions I think the press should ask Warsh today
From Aniket Baksy and Daniele Caratelli, here is part of the abstract: Because larger firms are more attractive targets but also invest more in protection, the model generates an inverse-U relationship between firm size and attack risk, consistent with the dat…
Bo French’s rightist movement is a dead end for our nation. Fortunately, it’s beatable.
Whatever your ideas for regulating AI, I say start with China. Do not put China as an afterthought at the end of your proposal, mentioned in a vague wish that something good ought to happen and that maybe the future of humanity can be secured. During the 2023…
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Yet more models
Why Mark Carney knew what an ancient philosopher did not.
Share prices of cyber firms have jumped around a lot in recent weeks, leading one side or the other to claim victory. But the crucial point is that, relative to the historical norm, the market is not really pricing ANYTHING big to change. There was a much bigg…
What Thomas Jefferson knew.
FaceBook bankrupt in one scenario in fifteen in five years? SpaceX & Oracle one in six? That appears to be what those willing to lend to FaceBook right now are thinking...
1. Easy to bioengineer a very dangerous virus? 2. The astrophysicists are getting antsy too. Princeton is also getting nervous. If nothing else, these are huge PR own goals. The guy is a Mill scholars, can you imagine J.S. Mill tweeting that way? 3. New David…
Steve’s subheadline is: “ In refusing to put the USPS mail-in ballots rule into effect, the majority didn’t say very much. I still think there are (at least) three important lessons...”;
Because it’s the only thing he has left
Here’s the S&P 500 (daily close) with the key COVID and policy events marked; the numbered key is below the chart. Event key: Dec 31 – China reports the Wuhan pneumonia cluster to the WHO Jan 21 – First confirmed US case (Washington state) Jan 23 – Wuhan locke…
Yascha Mounk and Jacob Weisberg examine why so many powerful people and institutions capitulated to Trump the second time around.
The Fed will hike and then the press conference will be a bit of a train wreck
Horwitz is in the business of playing a version of mom for local college students. Concierge companies offering student support have existed for decades. But in recent years, a new crop of upstarts — such as Horwitz’s company, MindyKnows; the Bama Mama in Alab…
Jacob begins: “Academic freedom is an unusual and complex set of norms and practices. It arises out of... corporate self-governance of medieval universities and... disciplinary scientific inquiry...”
Many of us brought up related points at the time, but basically we were booed off the reservation: While recent research has provided evidence that the Medicaid expansions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) reduced mortality, there is no evidence on the effect o…
Trump nuked male employment-heavy green-tech infrastructure, nuked reshoring, damaged our manufacturing firms’ abilities to be efficient producers in the modern globalized value-chain economy.
Andrew’s title: “I am shocked, shocked to learn that this 2002 paper by Dan Ariely is based on dubious data & doesn’t replicate”; but in addition to frauds, there are the honest but non-robust too...
1. Will driverless cars increase or reduce urban density? 2. One decomposition approach to why interest rates have been going up. 3. New Guinness record holders. 4. Is there any chance of finding Rembrandt DNA? 5. “Abundance Corps is hosting Making Progress, a…
It’s more likely than you think.
The spread between the benchmark 10-year French (OAT) government bond and the German Bund is currently trading at 94 bps.
A scenario for how AI could challenge universities’ dominance in higher education
On AI and climate, it’s the same story of mass destruction
Anthropic’s economic team, including Anton Korinek and Chad Jones, have a valuable new paper, Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI. They make their assumptions explicit and provide a scenario explorer that lets you change them. How capable will AI become?…