Investing, markets, and financial thinking.
The book, Exponential Wealth: Centuries of Stock and Bond Returns, provides context on the concentration issue in US stocks. The adjusted HHI index places us at historic levels. The smaller-cap market is being squeezed. Is this good for investors? One could ar…
This chart from Exponential Wealth: Centuries of Stock and Bond Returns shows significant, long periods of pain for US stocks. There has been a long drought since our last pain period. Should you be worried about this? We may not be at an inflection point, but…
I like the following graphic from Exponential Wealth: Centuries of Stock and Bond Returns. It makes clear that we were in two great bond environments: pre-1981 and post-1981. The high-inflation period reversed between 1981 and 2020. The real question is whethe…
McKinsey & Company has issued its report "Asset Management 2026: Plenty for the Few," which shows that the asset management business is about scale and increasing concentration. It is about gathering assets to improve operating margins in a world of falling fe…
A recording from Robin J Brooks's live video
getting started
Saturdays we catch up with the non-finance related items that we didn’t get to earlier in the week. You can check out...
when you reach for alpha and don’t even get beta
A big risk premium has gotten priced in anticipation of a return to a “hot” war
How markets have evolved. The post Markets Are Always Different This Time appeared first on A Wealth of Common Sense. ...
China’s oil imports have risen in line with Persian Gulf supply - it’s NOT panic buying
China’s annual manufacturing expansion was larger relative to G7 output: 6.1% versus 4.1% during the first shock.
While spreads have narrowed, they still support a positive outlook for value stocks.
As French government bond yields spike, we’re seeing the telltale signs of global crisis
I am not a fan of civil servants, but in the current political climate, they may end up as our saving grace.
I was in San Francisco last week to talk to NYU Stern Alumni on October 15, and it was the day that Anthropic had a pre-IPO meeting with prospective investors. While I was not at the meeting, the focus of teh gathering was laying a foundation for its upcoming…
What the debt sell-off in France is about and what it’s not about
In 2025, Zarattini, Aziz, and Barbon published a widely discussed paper, “Beat the Market: An Effective Intraday Momentum Strategy for S&P 500 ETF (SPY).” The strategy’s reported results were an eye-catching 19.6% annualized return and a Sharpe ratio of 1.33 f…
I bought some bonds. The post How I Think About Investing in Bonds appeared first on A Wealth of Common Sense. ...
Thursdays are all about longform links on Abnormal Returns. Wherever possible, free links for premium sites are used. You can check out...
There’s no realistic scenario where the Fed hikes its policy rate on October 28
Europe is famously fragmented.
France got huge inflows into its debt this summer, so there’s a big positioning overhang
The degree to which information is incorporated into asset prices is inversely related to the cost of acquiring that information.
Wednesdays are all about personal finance here at Abnormal Returns. You can check out last week’s links including a look at why...
On today's show we discuss AI debt concerns, Coreweave's Rocky IV moment, the 2020s appetite for risk, the Railway boom analogy, carnage under the surface of the stock market, the average stock this year, valuations are falling everywhere, how the stock market…
This post goes through some of the misinformation of recent weeks and debunks it
As someone who has worked most of his career on the buy side, I know that career risk is real and overrides many investment considerations.