Department
Finance.
Investing, markets, and financial thinking.
Lately on the shelf
30 of 984Profitability: The Common Thread Behind Quality, Defense, and Value
Investors often talk about quality, defensive, and value strategies as if they are distinct ways to earn return premiums.
The shifting Overton window
The Overton window is an effective tool for describing changing opinions in politics and science. The window is a simple construct. Joseph Overton, a public policy specialist, wanted to show how think tanks and political strategists can change public policy by…
1873 - the first depression and monetary mistakes
1873: The Rothschilds, the First Great Depression, and the Making of the Modern World by Pulitzer Prize-winning historian Liaquat Ahamed expands on the themes of global financial fragility introduced in his acclaimed Lords of Finance. It is a compelling story…
Personal finance links: taking a walk
Wednesdays are all about personal finance here at Abnormal Returns. You can check out last week’s links including a look at how...
Animal Spirits: Everywhere Millionaires
On today's show we discuss how bull market gains have changed the markets, AI is crowding everything else out, when the next financial crisis will hit, Ray Dalio keeps scaring investors, the earnings boom, a buying opportunity for bonds, the American Dream is…
10 Wednesday AM Reads
My mid-week morning reads: • It’s a Concentrated World: The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 make up almost 40% of the index. Each of the companies in the top 10 sport a market cap of $1 trillion or more. In fact, as of this writing, the 12 biggest companies all h…
China Doesn’t Set Global Oil Prices
Oil prices won’t go meaningfully above $100 and that’s got nothing to do with China
The price momentum of lottery tickets
As long-time readers know, I like to analyse momentum effects and find ways to improve momentum strategies since they tend to be prone to momentum crashes.
The Hidden Fault Lines in Private Credit Funding
Private credit has grown into roughly a $3.5 trillion global market, yet most of the risk discussion so far has focused on the asset side of the ledger — loan quality, valuation marks, and leverage.
The End of a Golden Era For Investors
Were millennials doomed to be period of lower stock market returns? The post The End of a Golden Era For Investors appeared first on A Wealth of Common Sense. ...
Tuesday links: a meme asset
How bad are the bond market returns?
Bonds are a bad bet, or have been a bad bet. In fact, the current period has been the worst in the longest history available. It is worse than the period of high inflation in the 1970's, worse than the Civil War. However, there is hope. As rates move higher, c…
Where are we going to get the needed copper?
Copper has hit new highs as investors focus on rising demand from the tech sector, yet a fundamental supply problem remains. Not enough new fields are being discovered and developed to meet demand. There is talk about commodity cycles, yet understanding long-t…
The gold real rate change in sensitivity
There are supposed to be certain “rules” between market drivers and gold. Gold is supposed to hedge inflation. This relationship has proven mixed. A second relationship is linked to real rates. Since gold does not earn a return, investors should prefer an asse…
Research links: a meaningful shift
Tuesdays are all about academic (and practitioner) literature at Abnormal Returns. You can check out last week’s edition including a look at...
Corporate vs Treasury Debt Duration
From 2008 through 2022, the 10-year Treasury yield was never above 3.25%; it spent nearly all of 2019–21 under 2%, while the 30-year bottomed at ~1% in March 2020. What an amazing opportunity to refinance debt at ultra-low rates! But not every institutional de…
Living Poor to Die Rich
I recently joined a professional organization to discuss various topics in wealth management. On our first Zoom call there was a debate around the use of levered long/short strategies. For the uninitiated, a levered long/short strategy is a way of taking marke…
10 Tuesday AM Reads
My Two-for-Tuesday morning reads: • Little Tobacco Moment Meta Wins. Our “Big Tobacco moment” ended with Meta’s shareholders richer, competitors weaker, and its business model intact. We’ve been played, again. Scott Galloway on the Meta settlement — 47 states…
Will Oil Prices Spike Again?
The kind of highs we saw earlier this year are no longer possible now
Southeast Asia as the new investment hub
When the US government imposed tariffs on pretty much every trading partner, it triggered a chain reaction that continues to ripple through the world.
What BDC Discounts Tell Us About Private-Credit Values
New research finds that the stock prices of publicly traded business development companies (BDCs) contain useful, forward-looking information about private-credit performance—often before that information is fully reflected in reported net asset values (NAVs).
Adviser links: managing client transitions
Mondays are all about financial adviser-related links here at Abnormal Returns. You can check out last week’s links including a look at...
Transcript: Bill McNabb, Vanguard former Chairman and CEO
The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Bill McNabb, Vanguard former Chairman and CEO, is below. You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube (audio), and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podca…
Talk Your Book: AI Winners & Losers
On today's Talk Your Book we speak with Alger's Dan Chung on investing in concentrated portfolios, what it's like picking stocks during a boom, sorting through the winners & losers in AI, Meta vs. Google and more. The post Talk Your Book: AI Winners & Losers a…
10 Labor Day Reads
My long weekend morning reads: • This data has helped fight workplace discrimination for 60 years. The Trump administration plans to delete it: The move marks a fundamental shift for the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC). Without this data, it wil…
What the Rise of Germany’s AfD Means
The rise of Germany’s AfD will bring massive changes, including the end of the Euro
Organic farming isn’t that much of a boon
I happen to have some in-laws in Germany who are biodynamic farmers.
It’s a Concentrated World
How AI will impact stock market concentration. The post It’s a Concentrated World appeared first on A Wealth of Common Sense. ...